Dear Fellow-Investor.
Whenever the stock markets have consolidated and broken down significantly, thousands of bargain hunters are on their way to try and find the one dirt cheap stock in the hope of cashing in large profits once it goes up again!
But when exactly is a stock cheap? For many investors a stock is only cheap when the price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is low. So the lower the price-earnings ratio the better it is for them on speculations that it will go to where it was before the stock dropped, if it goes up again.
To recap. A price-earnings ratio shows the multiple of earnings at which a stock sells. Determined by dividing current stock price by current earnings per share (adjusted for stock splits). A higher multiple means investors have higher expectations for future growth, and have bid up the stock’s price.
The thing about P/E ratios is that conservative investors should avoid stocks with a high P/E ratio because if these corporations disappoint with their earnings and don’t meet market expectations, the stock will drop dramatically like Whole Foods did dropping more than $20 at the beginning of November 2006.
If a stock has a low P/E ratio, where expectations aren’t that high, the reaction is far less dramatic if earnings and performance expectations aren’t met.
But if trading and investing in the stock market was that easy, everybody would just buy stocks with a low P/E ratio. To bad so sad that no one would have then had Starbucks in their portfoilo. A stock that shot up sky high in the past. A low P/E ratio doesn’t exist in Starbucks vocabulary!
If you disregard individual stocks that have dropped sharply and take a look at the broad market, you’ll surprisingly notice that a P/E ratio tells you absolutely nothing about whether a stock is going to go up or down in the future! Not only stocks with a high P/E ratio can drop, but also stocks with a lower one can.
A good example of the above is the following:
Within the last 4 years the Dutch financial company ING, having a low P/E ratio, climbed to the skies from $10 to over $40. That’s over 300% profits, whereas AIG (American International Group), also having a low P/E ratio, was virtually dead in comparison.
On the other hand, Starbucks and the German cosmetic company Beiersdorf kept on going up although both companies had a high P/E ratio whereas Whole Foods, also having a high P/E ratio, dropped from $80 all the way down to $40 in 2006, and EMC